Analysis of Factors Contributing to Train Derailments: The Perspective of South African Authorities

The paper discusses the factors contributing to train derailments from the perspective of South African authorities. The research aims to analyze the patterns of derailment within the South African railway industry and forecast future trends using time series models. The study utilized secondary data from the Railway Safety Regulator (RSR) covering the periods of 2010 to 2017 and 2018 to 2022, totaling 13 years of rail safety data. The paper is structured into five sections and uses a mixed-methods approach based on established literature. The research revealed that the frequency of train derailments has shown a consistent decrease over the years, and this trend is anticipated to continue in the future. The most common causes of derailments include broken rails, faulty welding, and obstructions on the tracks, which have the potential to cause damage to the train, tracks, and overall infrastructure. Human error is also a significant contributing factor to incidents in the yard and sidings. The study highlights that various factor, including the technical condition of rolling stock, track maintenance, human error, and operating conditions, can influence derailments. A comprehensive approach to rail safety should consider these multiple contributing factors.