Variable Renewable Energy Forecasting in the Philippines: A Review

The Philippines is advancing its renewable energy goals to achieve a 35% share by 2030. This study evaluates solar photovoltaic (PV), and wind power output forecasting methods currently employed in the Philippines, aiming to assess their accuracy against electricity market standards and identify potential improvements. The study systematically reviews articles emphasizing forecasting methods, including physical, statistical, machine learning, and hybrid models. The methodologies encompass a range of forecasting horizons and utilize a diverse set of input variables that influence forecasting accuracy. A key finding from the literature is the variability in the accuracy of these forecasting models, with many not meeting the stringent Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) threshold of 18% set by the Philippines' Wholesale Electricity Spot Market (WESM). This emphasizes the need for enhanced forecasting models to mitigate economic losses and improve grid stability significantly. Furthermore, this study suggests integrating more sophisticated, data-driven forecasting models to improve accuracy. Such advancements are critical for managing the intermittent nature of solar and wind energy and making informed decisions on energy policy and investment in the Philippines. The study also identifies gaps in current forecasting practices and recommends avenues for future research, particularly in developing models that align better with the operational standards and real-time demands of the energy market.