Predicting Electoral Behavior from Homo Economicus in Contemporary Europe

Economy and financial indicators, such as inflation or unemployment, are always high-priority issues in the political agenda for both candidates and voters. This paper examines how purchasing power influences voting behavior according to the theoretical approach of Homo Economicus, which emphasizes the impact of finance and the economic well-being of individuals who make their rational choices based on maximizing their economic interests. The analysis aims to explore the role of financial and economic conditions on the shaping of certain electoral behavior. We investigate if the direct impact on the purchasing power of individuals influences the participation in the elections and the change or not of the political and voting preferences according to the previous elections. Our study analyzes the data collected from employees in big French enterprises and draw conclusions about their electoral behavior, through a machine learning analysis, which predicts the electoral behavior based on their opinions about economic issues. This paper contributes to a better understanding of the complexity of electoral behavior in the contemporary European Union. It highlights the importance of purchasing power and the wider financial agenda in shaping voter preferences, active political participation and political positioning of individuals in the Left-Right axis.