Potential Geographical Distribution of the Wheat Streak Mosaic Virus and its Impact on Food Security: Prediction Based on Modelling Using Climatic Factor

Climate change has a major effect on the world's food production systems through outbreaks and spread of vector-borne and non-vector-borne crop diseases that affect farmer's incomes and national economies. This study predicts the distribution of Wheat Streak Mosaic Virus (WSMV) from 2021-2040 using historical and future climate data and WSMV species data. Using a maxent species distribution model with a Training AUC of 0.899, Test AUC of 0.884, and a True Skill Statistic of 0.697, potential regions for WSMV distribution are identified. Isothermality of 15-33, precipitation in driest month between 10mm-300mm, mean diurnal temperature of 11°C and above; annual temperature range of 25°C-34°C; precipitation seasonality not exceeding 7; precipitation in coldest quarter of 50mm–250mm; and precipitation of driest quarter of 25mm-250mm will influence WSMV distribution. We recommend strict enforcement of cross-border plant protection regulations, empowerment of local farmers, and integration of national-level response in risk's preparedness plans.