An Energy Demand Analysis and Emission Reduction Potential of Electric Buses for Cities in Developing Economies: A Case Study of Nairobi, Kenya

The adoption of electric buses in mass transit systems in urban areas provide an optimistic opportunity for the reduction of fossil energy consumption, greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) and pollution while at the same time advancing the efficiency and sustainability of urban mobility. This study examines the energy demand and environmental benefits of the transportation transition to electrified buses from the predomi-nant internal combustion engine (ICE) buses. The investigation analyzes the present state of transportation, including the bus fleet, traffic flow patterns, and road networks. The daily energy consumption, operational and maintenance costs, and estimated carbon footprint of the current ICE buses are calculated. Additionally, the forecasted number of buses that will likely be required to enable mass adoption is estimated based on the projected growth in population. A multi-scenario analysis to evaluate the impacts of 10%, 30%, 50%, and 100% deployment rates of e-buses on energy demand, grid capacity, and GHG is conducted for the years 2030, 2040, and 2050 based upon forecasted energy consumption and GHG emissions. This study aims to serve as an informative framework for other developing economies looking into the adoption of electric buses to cut down on their emissions and improve the efficiency of their public transport systems by highlighting the impact of e-bus adoption on the environment and the power grid.