The Technology of Constructing Generalized Risk Factor Assessment of Objects on the Resulting Ordinal Scale Considering their Expert Probability

The article is devoted to the technology of constructing generalized risk factor for evaluation of objects considering their expert probability, including technical projects, enterprise development strategies, construction of regional facilities, and so on. The construction of a generalized risk factor assessment of objects with a multi-level structure results an issue of constructing the resulting scale. The relative degree of losses is generally characterized by weights of risk factors. The level of risk consequences and respective subjective probability are usually presented as the form of a square matrix - a risk map. Risks areas with verbal interpretation are accepted as a generalized assessment. The article proposes a new method for transitioning from the initial assessment of risk factors considering the expert probability to point estimates on the resulting difference scale based on the technology framework of constructing a generalized risk assessment of objects with a multi-level structure. The essence of the method is originally reduced to the transition from the initial point estimates in the point scale to the interval gradations of the resulting scale. Subsequently, given the subjective probability, one transits to point estimates of the resulting difference scale.