Tennis Enhancing Tennis Match Strategies through Momentum Change Analysis and Prediction Models

In the domain of professional tennis, the occurrence of significant fluctuations in match dominance is a common phenomenon, often ascribed to the elusive concept of "momentum." Although players intuitively sense these shifts in momentum, quantitatively capturing and measuring them presents a considerable challenge. Moreover, it is critical to examine the impact of specific match events on the evolution of momentum. In response to these challenges, the current study undertakes a comprehensive modeling analysis of tennis match data from the year 2023. The foundation of the analysis is a meticulous examination and preprocessing of the available data, which ensures the robustness of the subsequent modeling efforts. By equating the differential in player momentum to observable fluctuations in match dynamics, the study constructs a predictive framework. The research employs sophisticated feature engineering to identify appropriate indicators that serve as inputs to various predictive models. These models encompass integrated approaches, as well as linear and nonlinear methods, all rigorously validated using a 10-fold cross-validation technique. Through an exhaustive GridSearch approach for hyperparameter optimization, three predominant models emerge: Support Vector Regression (SVR), Random Forest (RF), and XGBoost regression. These models are ingeniously combined into a Stacking model, which culminates in a highly accurate player match volatility prediction model, boasting an R-squared value of 0.9343. The analysis identifies the game score, the opponent's score, and the serving turn as pivotal factors contributing to match fluctuation. Based on these insights, the study advises players to conduct an in-depth analysis of their opponents' momentum shifts and adjust their strategies accordingly. Additionally, players are recommended to introspect their own momentum changes in parallel scenarios to gain a deeper comprehension of their performance. This strategic self-awareness is imperative for athletes to adapt and refine their tactics, thereby securing a sustained competitive advantage in the high-stakes arena of professional tennis.