Assessing the Impacts of Cross-border Interconnection to Renewable Energy Penetration in Power Systems: Case Study of ASEAN Subregion

The ASEAN Power Grid (APG) initiative has recently shifted its focus towards the new subregion i.e., Brunei-Indonesia-Malaysia-Philippines (BIMP) subregion, building upon the successful implementation of the Lao-Thailand-Malaysia-Singapore (LTMS) interconnection project. This paper investigates the impact of cross-border power interconnections on renewable energy (RE) penetration in the BIMP power systems. Two scenarios are developed and analysed: zero interconnection (ZI) and fully interconnected (FI). The Low Emission Analysis Platform (LEAP) model integrated with the next energy modelling system for optimization (NEMO) has been employed in this study to perform the forecasting of energy demand and supply. The modelling results indicate that under the FI scenario, the region could utilise 100% renewable energy generation, while in the ZI scenario, RE shares could only reach 63%. Furthermore, FI scenario shows that the region could achieve net-zero emissions by 2050. However, the cumulative cost required to reach net-zero emissions under the FI scenario is not significantly different compared to the cumulative cost required under ZI scenario. The findings of this study could provide insight to ASEAN, encourage to accelerate the efforts for cross-border interconnection in the BIMP subregion.