On the Predictability of Fine-Grained Cellular Network Throughput Using Machine Learning Models

Networking research has witnessed a renaissance from exploring the seemingly unlimited predictive power of machine learning (ML) models. One such promising direction is throughput prediction - accurately predicting the network bandwidth or achievable throughput of a client in real time using ML models can enable a wide variety of network applications to proactively adapt their behavior to the changing network dynamics to potentially achieve significantly improved QoE. Motivated by the key role of newer generations of cellular networks in supporting the new generation of latency-critical applications such as AR/MR, in this work, we focus on accurate throughput prediction in cellular networks at fine time-scales, e.g., in the order of 100 ms. Through a 4-day, 1000+ km driving trip, we collect a dataset of fine-grained throughput measurements under driving across all three major US operators. Using the collected dataset, we conduct the first feasibility study of predicting fine-grained application throughput in real-world cellular networks with mixed LTE/5G technologies. Our analysis shows that popular ML models previously claimed to predict well for various wireless networks scenarios (e.g., WiFi or single-technology network such as LTE only) do not predict well under app-centric metrics such as ARE95 and PARE10. Further, we uncover the root cause for the poor prediction accuracy of ML models as the inherent conflicting sample sequences in the fine-grained cellular network throughput data.