Research on Energy Supply & Demand Balance Under New Energy System in China Based on the CEMS Models

Building a new energy system is an important way for China to achieve its “dual carbon” goals. Accurately grasping the positioning and supply-demand balance of various energy varieties in the new energy system is of great significance for ensuring energy supply and green low-carbon transformation. Based on the CEMS model, the energy and electricity demand in three different scenarios (baseline scenario, enhanced energy-saving scenario, and accelerated green transformation scenario) were analyzed and predicted, and energy flow charts for 2030 and 2060 were drawn to reflect the supply-demand relationship of different energy varieties. The research results indicate that under the new energy system, the proportion of fossil fuels will continue to decrease, but they will still play a key role in supporting, regulating the system, and utilizing raw materials for a long time. The proportion of new energy is rapidly increasing and it will become the largest energy source between 2040 and 2045. Compared to the baseline scenario, the energy demand under the strengthened energysaving scenario has decreased, in which carbon peak is achieved two years earlier. In the scenario of accelerating green transformation, the proportion of non-fossil fuels is higher, energy demand has increased, and carbon peak is achieved one year earlier.