Supply reliability evaluation method for deregulated electric power market considering customers uncertainty

In this paper, by using expected unserved power (EUP) as a supply reliability index, a probabilistic approach to evaluate supply reliability of power system and each customer is proposed. EUP in the proposed approach is derived from forced outage rate of generators connecting power grid, and to deal with the uncertainty of customers' consumption, EUP calculation is extended to include demand variation of the customers in the proposed approach. Extension of EUP calculation makes it possible to evaluate supply, reliability from customers' side. Transmission congestion also has influences on supply reliability of power system. In the proposed approach, transmission line reliability sensitivity (TRS), that is calculated using EUP, is proposed to evaluate the influences of transmission congestion on supply reliability. Several numerical simulations using a test system demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach.