Modelling Long-Term Fossil Fuel-Based Electricity Generation Trajectory for China, USA and India

The energy sector has been a major contributor to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere due to its reliance on fossil fuels for electricity generation. Nevertheless, the global pattern of energy use is significantly skewed, with China, the USA, and India accounting for about half of the world's total consumption. These nations also happen to be the largest polluters of greenhouse gases. As a result, how these nations generate power in the future using fossil fuels will have a big influence on how the world responds to the threat posed by climate change. In light of this, the current study makes an effort to project the future scenario for fossil fuel-based energy generation (2020–2035) using historical data. In order to anticipate for the aforementioned time, the study makes use of well-established forecasting models, including the Metabolic Grey Model (MGM), Non-linear Metabolic Grey Model (NMGM), Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), Support Vector Machine (SVM), and Artificial Neural Network (ANN). According to the study's projections for the year 2035, China and India would keep producing more power derived from fossil fuels, but at a slower rate. The analysis projects a little decline in the United States’ present levels of fossil fuel-based power output under comparable circumstances.