Off-Body Sleep Analysis for Predicting Adverse Behavior in Individuals With Autism Spectrum Disorder

Poor sleep quality in Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD) individuals is linked to severe daytime behaviors. This study explores the relationship between a prior night's sleep structure and its predictive power for next-day behavior in ASD individuals. The motion was extracted using a low-cost near-infrared camera in a privacy-preserving way. Over two years, we recorded overnight data from 14 individuals, spanning over 2000 nights, and tracked challenging daytime behaviors, including aggression, self-injury, and disruption. We developed an ensemble machine learning algorithm to predict next-day behavior in the morning and the afternoon. Our findings indicate that sleep quality is a more reliable predictor of morning behavior than afternoon behavior the next day. The proposed model attained an accuracy of 74% and a F1 score of 0.74in target-sensitive tasks and 67% accuracy and 0.69 F1 score in target-insensitive tasks. For 7 of the 14, better-than-chance balanced accuracy was obtained (p-value$< $0.05), with 3 showing significant trends (p-value$< $ 0.1). These results suggest off-body, privacy-preserving sleep monitoring as a viable method for predicting next-day adverse behavior in ASD individuals, with the potential for behavioral intervention and enhanced care in social and learning settings.