Load Forecasting Scenario for the Electrical Power System Connected With Ocean Current Power Plant in Kepa Island of Indonesia

The Indonesian government is currently targeting new renewable energy of 23% by 2025. The government’s strategic step is to retire several coal steam power plants and place a moratorium on constructing steam power plants. Based on the realization of the electricity electrification ratio in Indonesia, in 2023, it will reach 99.79%. One of the locations that has not been electrified to present is Kepa Island, Alor, East Nusa Tenggara. The existing condition of Kepa Island currently does not get electricity from the grid (PLN). The Kepa Strait has quite potential for ocean currents based on previous research results. In 2024, a 2 x 50 kW Ocean Currents Power Plants (OCPP) pilot project is planned in the Kepa Strait. In this case, a 10-year load forecast will be conducted to support the OCPP projects. The load forecast uses 3 model approaches, including linear regression, population and tourism growth approaches, and national economic growth. The result of forecasting until ten years with three scenarios are 66,119 VA, 68,400 VA, and 53,366 VA. Thus, the load growth over the ten years is still in line with OCPP’s profile.