On resilience of future decarbonised energy systems in Europe

The general scope the present model-based research is to analyse climate-neutral scenarios for Europe and to assess the respective resilience of the energy system. Two scenarios are therefore examined, one with an unrestricted global hydrogen market and the other with improved European energy resilience that limits pipeline imports of hydrogen from non-European countries. Key findings include increasing electrification of the heat and transport sectors, widespread use of Power-to-X appliances and, as a result, a doubling of total electricity consumption in Europe. On the power generation side, there is a need for massive expansion of renewables such as wind and photovoltaics. The analysis shows that a more resilient energy system will require additional electrolysis capacity, hydrogen storage and hydrogen grid capacity. The marginal cost of hydrogen will also increase as a result, and a higher price level will subsequently reduce the demand for hydrogen. The overall conclusion is that a transition from fossil fuels to renewables will, in any case, make the energy system much less dependent on imports and thus more resilient.