Research on Multi-Stage Optimal Investment Decision Method of Integrated Energy System in Southwest Border Region Considering Multiple Uncertainties

The planning and construction of regional integrated energy system has a long-time span, and it is often based on the expansion planning of existing energy facilities to meet the increasing demand of load. A long planning period is easily disturbed by many external uncertainties, which leads to the deviation of the planning results from the predetermined goals. Therefore, considering the load and resource characteristics of the southwest cross-border region, this paper investigated and sorted out the influencing factors that affect the economic investment of its integrated energy system, and constructed a multi-level and staged economic evaluation index system of integrated energy system investment, introduced sensitivity and Monte Carlo simulation methods. The evaluation method of economic comprehensive evaluation index of uncertainty factors based on dynamic simulation and quantitative calculation was proposed. Finally, the system capacity allocation under economic optimal conditions was simulated through the dynamic simulation platform of a typical cross-border regional integrated energy system, and the multistage investment decision-making scheme of border cross-border fixed resources and flexible resources was summarized and refined.