Granger Causality Analysis of Global Warming and Precipitation on Vegetation in the Himalayan Region

This study explores the intricate relationship between global land surface temperature (GTemp), precipitation (Preci), and vegetation (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI)) in the vulnerable Himalayan region utilizing a Vector Auto Regression (VAR) based Granger causality test applying to monthly data obtained from NASA and NOAA from April 2013 to December 2021. Findings reveal that NDVI variations in the Himalayan region are not Granger caused by GTemp but are significantly (p-value < 0.05) caused by Preci. However, the integrated effect of GTemp and Preci has a causal effect on NDVI. Furthermore, Preci exhibited a bidirectional relationship with NDVI, emphasizing the mutual influence between Preci patterns and NDVI dynamics. This study provides essential insights for scholars and planners aiding climate change and biodiversity management and aligning with sustainable development goals in the fragile Himalayan ecosystem.