Machine Learning for Climate Change Impact Assessment and Adaptation Planning

The presented research introduces a new advanced data analytics methodology for climate change impact assessment and adaptive planning that utilizes machine learning and deep-learning techniques. Quantitative analysis was performed over several databases such as GHCN, ERA5, National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and JRA-55 in addition to CRU for a thorough assessment of the proposed methodology. In climate modeling, the Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN) showed better accuracy than ERA5 and JRA-55 which outperformed Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN) with lower Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Root Mean Squared Error values. The Early Warning System, which was built using the LSTM network algorithm, had a higher accuracy of 0.90 and recall rate of 0.88 especially with JRA-55 proving its effectiveness in early detection for extreme weather events before they occur. The RL-based adaptive planning component performed well across all datasets, with ERA5 reaching the best feedback loop performance score of 94%. The precision agriculture optimization, which was enabled by Random Forest revealed different accuracy and AUC-ROC values across various datasets showing flexibility. Against international climate agreements, the overall alignment score was 0.78 with ERA5 being slightly better at 0.80 using Support Vector Machines (SVM). These quantitative assessments accentuate the practicality, efficacy, and applicability of this methodology in various datasets making it an apt tool for evidence-based decisions on climate resilience strategies at the global level.