Evolutionary Phases in Emerging Quantum Technologies: General Theoretical and Managerial Implications for Driving Technological Evolution

The goal of this study is to analyze the evolutionary phases of emerging technologies to improve technological forecasting and management of promising innovations. The methodology applies
S
-shaped models with patent data to analyze the evolutionary phases in emerging quantum technologies. In this article, findings reveal that the evolutionary cycle of recent quantum technologies, based on the patent data, is reducing compared with older technologies originated before the 1980s: from about 66 to 45 years. In addition, recent quantum technologies have a growth phase of about 22 years and a maturity phase of 11 years, a shorter period than technologies originated before the 1980s (having a growth phase of 40 years and a maturity phase of about 13 years). The measure of entropy (dispersion) in the growth phase is lower (0.64) than maturity phase (0.74): a lower diversification of technological topics and related technological trajectories. Results here suggest inductive implications that the evolution of emerging technologies, such as quantum technology, has a high complexity and uncertainty for rapid changes in the scientific and innovation ecosystem. Results also support a technological management based on an ambidexterity strategy:
Exploitation
strategy in the early phase of a technology's life cycle, which is characterized by concentrated topics (lower entropy measure), directed to targeted R&D investments in specific technologies. Instead, the maturity phase of technology's life cycle, having diversified themes (higher entropy measure), suggest a strategy of
exploration
for detecting the most promising technological directions for developing future quantum innovations among new and expanding scientific and technological domains for achieving and sustaining competitive advantage of firms and nations in a world of innovation-based competition.