Honest or Dishonest? Promoting Integrity in Loot Box Games Through Evolutionary Game Theory

With the rapid advancement of free-to-play games featuring in-game payments, the loot box sales model challenges traditional fixed-price purchases by stimulating players’ psychological desires. However, concerns have arisen among players regarding the transparency of loot box drop rates as claimed by game companies. Considering players’ “partial information” and “bounded rationality” in-game, this study explores strategic interactions and evolutionary outcomes under various decision-making scenarios through a bipartite evolutionary game model, employing the replication dynamics approach. In contrast to conventional studies that examine market manipulation post hoc, evolutionary game theory enables a proactive examination of strategies to foster fairness within the loot box game market. The findings indicate that the dynamic between companies and players may ultimately converge to either a lose–lose or win–win scenario. Through simulation analysis, the impact of stakeholders’ initial strategic ratios and critical parameters on the evolutionary trajectory is examined. It is observed that companies hold a dominant position in enhancing cooperation, whereas regulatory bodies can foster industry development through heightened regulation. This assertion is substantiated with real-world examples. The goal of this research is to advocate for integrity and transparency within the gaming industry, ensuring a fair environment for players.