Electric Vehicle Load Forecasting in Mountainous Cities Considering Traffic Behavior

In response to the unique topographical challenges posed by mountainous environments, this paper investigates a probabilistic model of electric vehicle charging load, taking into account the unique traffic behavior and regional characteristics of mountainous cities. Regarding the traffic behavior, first, a traffic road network model for mountainous cities is proposed. Next, the travel chain theory is combined with the road chain to consider the functional partition of the city, which can better describe the travel patterns and charging behavior of users. Based on the analysis of traffic behavior, by exploring the influences of ambient temperature, road grade, and the undulating nature of mountainous roads, an improved Floyd shortest path algorithm is used for path decision-making, leading to the development of an EV power consumption model specifically tailored for mountainous cities. Based on this model, the prediction of EV load in mountainous cities is subsequently conducted. Overall, this study proposes a more realistic EV load prediction model by integrating traffic behavior, regional characteristics and user travel patterns, and the simulation results demonstrate the adaptability as well as the effectiveness of the method for application in mountainous cities.