Early Prediction of Cryptocurrency Price Decline: A Deep Learning Approach

In recent times, the cryptocurrency market has emerged as one of the fastest-growing financial markets worldwide. It is, however, known for its high volatility and illiquidity compared to traditional markets such as equities, foreign exchange, and commodities. This inherent risk creates uncertainty among investors. The aim of this research is to forecast the level of risk in the cryptocurrency market. To assist cryptocurrency investors in navigating these challenges, we propose an approach that involves calculating the risk factor based on existing parameters. We employed various machine learning algorithms, including CNN, LSTM, BiLSTM, and GRU, to predict the risk factor in twenty elements of the cryptocurrency market. Through extensive experimentation, we developed a new model that outperformed existing models, achieving the highest Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) value of 1.3229 and the lowest RMSE value of 0.0089. Furthermore, we tested the generalization ability of our proposed model on a new dataset, different from the one used for training. Even with this new dataset, our model displayed robust performance. In contrast, the other existing models achieved higher RMSE values, with the highest being 14.5092 and the lowest 0.02769. By adopting our approach, investors can trade more confidently in complex and challenging financial assets such as Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Dogecoin. Our proposed model demonstrates superior performance and generalization capabilities, providing valuable insights for participants in the cryptocurrency market.