IMGTP: A Unified Framework for Improving and Measuring the Generalizability of Trajectory Prediction Models

Accurately predicting nearby agents' future trajectories is fundamental for ensuring the safety and efficiency of autonomous driving. However, existing learning-based trajectory prediction models struggle with poor generalization to out-of-distribution (OOD) scenes, potentially leading to failed predictions in real-world applications. To tackle this challenge, we introduce IMGTP, a unified framework for systematically evaluating, improving, and measuring the generalization performance of trajectory prediction models in OOD scenes. IMGTP consists of three primary components: the Argoverse-Shift dataset, the Frenét+ strategy, and an approach for OOD measurement. First, the Argoverse-Shift is a cross-domain dataset that highlights the significant differences in data distributions across domains, serving as a testing platform for models' generalization ability. Second, the Frenét+ strategy leverages map centerlines and the Frenét Frame to enhance the generalizability of baseline models by mitigating the domain gap resulting from road geometry variations. Third, we provide a comprehensive evaluation methodology for OOD measurement, quantifying the range of data that can be effectively handled by prediction models. This measurement approach employs the accuracy rate of the correctly predicted samples and their corresponding mean distance as well as standard deviation to the training set center as indicators of the model's generalization ability. The mean distance also serves as a valid criterion for OOD detection and uncertainty quantification. Experimental results demonstrate that our IMGTP framework enhances the generalization capability of mainstream trajectory prediction models by substantially improving their prediction performance in unseen domains. This advancement contributes to developing more robust and safer prediction models for autonomous driving in the real world. The code can be found at
https://github.com/XIAOYEJIAYOU/Frenet-Strategy
.