A Common Dam? Exploring Scenarios for the Revision of Annex C of ITAIPU

This article presents a comprehensive literature review of existing methodologies for exploring the future and their potential application in the energy sector. It is found that methodologies related to future studies have diversified, allowing the integration of information about complex environments through the opinions of various stakeholders. The most well-known methodologies are foresight and future scenarios, which can be applied in various decision-making cases, including international negotiations. Specifically, the future negotiation between Paraguay and Brazil in 2023 is addressed, involving the binational hydroelectric power plant ITAIPU, jointly owned by both countries. The aim is to construct feasible scenarios after the review of ITAIPU's Annex C. A scenario tool is applied to prepare for eventualities, providing flexibility in decision-making. Three possible future scenarios for tariffs after the ITAIPU review are developed, based on the analysis of alternatives for the Cost of Electric Service (CSE) of ITAIPU. This tool can be used for the ITAIPU Annex C review.