Accounting for Individual Shooting Skills in Combat Models

There is significant variation in shooting ability among U.S. Army soldiers, which is often overlooked in combat simulations. This study introduces a Monte-Carlo model to estimate the dispersion of a soldier’s shot group based on their marksmanship score. This model is used to assess the impact of marksmanship on a squad’s performance through two analyses. The first analysis employs a dueling model to examine various marksmanship skills between dueling teams, offering insights into overmatch requirements. The second analysis uses an agent-based combat simulation to investigate the influence of marksmanship on squad performance in a dueling scenario in addition to tactical rural and urban missions. The results reveal that marksmanship becomes increasingly crucial in enhancing lethality and survivability as the distance between combatants grows. Notably, superior marksmanship skills are particularly vital in offensive, rural operations. These findings emphasize the significance of marksmanship and its implications for military requirements and tactical decision-making.