Towards An Automatic Construction Of Simulation Scenarios: A Systematic Review

A predictive simulation is built on a conceptual model (e.g., to identify relevant constructs and relationships) and serves to estimate the potential effects of ‘what-if’ scenarios. Developing the conceptual model and plausible scenarios has long been a time-consuming activity, often involving the manual processes of identifying and engaging with experts, then performing desk research, and finally crafting a compelling narrative about the potential futures captured as scenarios. Automation could speed-up these activities, particularly through text mining. We performed the first review on automation for simulation scenario building. Starting with 420 articles published between 1995 and 2022, we reduced them to 11 relevant works. We examined them through four research questions concerning data collection, extraction of individual elements, connecting elements of insight and (degree of automation of) scenario generation. Our review identifies opportunities to guide this growing research area by emphasizing consistency and transparency in the choice of datasets or methods.