Through the looking glass: uncertainties in electricity balancing needs for a net zero power system

The electricity system will rapidly change as it decarbonises into the 2030s, with increasing electrification of demand, more weather-dependent generation, and more temporally variable network power flows. There is considerable uncertainty as to the timing, magnitude and profile of these changes, requiring system operators, governments and regulators to plan the system and develop markets with an uncertain risk profile. This paper outlines some of the key uncertainties that affect electricity balancing needs and quantifies the impacts of some of these uncertainties for the case of Great Britain in 2035. Future work should expand the uncertainties considered for system planning studies and incorporate additional probabilistic and risk-based metrics.