Photovoltaic Waste Projection in Vietnam Until 2050

Solar power will dominate Vietnam“s power supply system in 2050. High solar power penetration causes considerable solar photovoltaic waste during production, transportation, installation, use, and end-of-life disposal. This paper uses the Weibull distribution to forecast the photovoltaic waste in Vietnam until 2050. Twelve scenarios are prepared based on the approval power development planning (low, high scenarios), the assumptions on average lifetime (20, 25, 30 years), and the loss scenarios (regular, early scenarios). The findings indicate that between 2030 and 2050, the annual photovoltaic waste will increase 73 - 247 times (to 871 - 2,284 thousand tons) under the regular-loss scenarios and 16 - 21 times (to 1,483 - 3,061 thousand tons) under the early-loss scenarios. Without the annual treatment between 2030 and 2050, the cumulative photovoltaic waste will increase 260 - 659 times under the regular-loss scenarios and 38 - 48 times under the early-loss scenarios. Moreover, Vietnam may reach the economically feasible recycling threshold between 2026 and 2036. Furthermore, this study also carries out photovoltaic material waste streams to provide policymakers and other stakeholders with a foreseeable picture for policy design and recycling preparation.