DATASISMO: A model for the forecast of health needs via analysis of the demand for supplies and medicines

At the end of 2019, the disease later known as COVID-19 emerged, causing the recent pandemic. The objective of this study was to propose an adaptive mathematical model with the capacity to forecast the health needs of the conntry in the face of the pandemic situation, based on the health needs and the demands for supplies, medicines and other resources identified in the database of the Ministry of Health from the Republic of Panama. In addition, information from the GitHub Repository of the John Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering was considered. A quantitative methodology was used from existing data, based on a mixed approach that incorporated dynamic simulation, machine learning and Six-Sigma design. A monitoring model has been developed focused on reducing health risk due to shortages of medicines and medical supplies in the event of a pandemic or similar situation. This research has laid the foundations for the development of epidemiological models in Panama to facilitate data processing, providing a complementary tool for decision-making based on short-term predictions, which is expected to achieve a better distribution of health resources in the country in cases of national health emergency.