Ontological Decision Support Model for Cargo Port Risk Management

Modern unstable conditions of the market environment dictate the need for transport logistics enterprises to predict possible risk situations in order to prevent them, as well as to develop tools that allow forming management decisions, evaluating the effectiveness of each of them and choosing the most appropriate one, taking into account specific tasks and various influencing factors. As risks, situations of failure to achieve the goals of the cargo port, as well as failure to achieve standard values by the indicators for assessing these goals are considered. Goals and indicators are indicated in the constructed balanced scorecard (BSC). A set of links between goals and indicators for their assessment with risks at various levels of management is presented in the form of a developed multi-level hybrid logical-probabilistic (LP) risk model of the cargo port, as well as in detailed scenario models of this LP model. The ontological model contains all the information about the interaction of elements that affect the onset of risky events, and allows you to select options for exiting a risky situation in accordance with various specified conditions. The simulation model allows, based on the results of requests to the ontological model and the scenarios of simulation experiments developed on their basis, to develop a management decision that allows avoiding risky situations in the longer term, taking into account all available stochastic characteristics and factors of influence.