MMEL-Based Approach To Aircraft Operational Reliability Prediction

This paper proposes an MMEL-based reliability prediction method for civil aircraft operations. First, the sensitivity factors which affect the operational interruption of civil aircraft are researched according to the operational environment and design requirements of civil aircraft. In consequence, key parameters affecting civil aircraft Operational interruption are obtained and a reliability prediction index system for civil aircraft operations is developed. On this foundation, an operational reliability prediction model for the civil aircraft development phase is established and an analytical expression for operational reliability calculation is derived. Finally, an example analysis using data from the A350 shows that the method proposed in this paper is effective in predicting and assessing the operational reliability of civil aircraft during the design phase.