A Bayesian Filtering Approach for Tracking Sympathetic Arousal and Cortisol-Related Energy From Marked Point Process and Continuous-Valued Observations

Multiple state variables governed by internal processes within the human body remain unobserved. On a number of occasions, these states are linked to point process bioelectric and biochemical observations coupled together with continuous-valued variables. These observations provide a means to estimate the latent states of interest. We develop a state-space method to estimate unobserved sympathetic arousal and energy production states from skin conductance and cortisol data respectively, comprising of a marked point process and a continuous-valued observation. The method involves Bayesian filtering applied within an expectation-maximization (EM) framework for state estimation and model parameter recovery. Results are evaluated on both simulated and experimental data. On experimental skin conductance data, high arousal levels are generally detected during cognitive stress periods and lower values are detected during relaxation. Results are also in conformity with general physiology for cortisol data. On separate experimental data, skin conductance-based estimates are validated/cross-checked with functional Near Infrared Spectroscopy features. Estimation is also performed on heart rate and skin conductance data to illustrate the method’s wider applicability. We also compare the method with earlier approaches. We show how it outperforms a previous method for cortisol-based energy estimation, and its superiority to earlier methods for estimating sympathetic arousal. The EM approach is thus able to estimate latent physiological states within the body from point process bioelectric and biochemical phenomena. The method could be applied in wearable monitoring and automated closed-loop therapy delivery for patients diagnosed with certain types of neuropsychiatric or hormone disorders.