Forecasting of Monkeypox Cases Using Optimized SARIMAX Based Model

This study presents a dipper-throated-based ant colony optimization (DTACO) with the Seasonal Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average with eXogenous factor (SARIMAX) model (DTACO+SARIMAX) to forecast monkeypox cases. The work optimizes the SARIMAX model using grid search cross-validation and fine-tunes its hyperparameters using DTACO to improve prediction accuracy. The suggested model's consistency and accuracy are considerable compared to previous studies. Comparisons with state-of-the-art models validate the proposed model's predictions. DTACO+SARIMAX can be used to control disease and monitor monkeypox. Healthcare organizations and governments can better manage and track the pandemic's course by offering accurate predictions, reducing public panic, and enabling effective pandemic planning. The Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) and Wilcoxon signed-rank tests are conducted on the proposed DTACO-SARIMAX model and compared models.