Rumor Spreading Model Considering the Roles of Online Social Networks and Information Overload

Online social networks have become important channels for spreading rumors, and the spreading process in these networks is influenced by many factors. This study focuses on the problem of rumor spreading through indirect contact, such as non-following/non-friend relationships due to the roles of social networks, and considers the phenomenon of rumor isolation from users resulting from information overload on social networks.The SMQIR rumor-spreading model with five user groups was developed by introducing two parameters: the probability of social network influence and the probability of rumor isolation. The laws of influence of the relevant parameters were investigated using numerical simulations. Furthermore, the reproduction number and equilibrium point of the model were calculated, and the stability of the equilibrium point was analyzed based on the Routh-Hurwitz criterion. The proposed model was evaluated through a comparative analysis with the SIR and SIHR models, while two authentic datasets were employed for validation purposes. This study revealed that online social networks not only intuitively increase the rate of rumor propagation and amplify its reach and magnitude, but also prolong the duration of rumor spreading. Moreover, a higher influence coefficient of online social media leads to an extended period for spreading rumors in terms of speed, scale, and longevity. Conversely, information overload hampers the speed and scale of rumor spreading while simultaneously extending its duration. Additionally, it was observed that information overload may result in the limited exposure to rumors for certain individuals.