Daily Peak Load Forecast of Banda Aceh City Using Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) Method

Electrical energy has become a fundamental need for society to achieve economic and technical efficiency. To meet the demand for electrical energy, the thing that is done is Electric Load Forecast. In this study, we developed a daily peak load forecast model for Banda Aceh City by considering data on temperature, humidity, and today’s electricity load data at peak hours. Forecasts are made using artificial intelligence, namely, the Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) method. Software used Matlab R2015a to create a daily peak load forecast model based on the neuro-fuzzy designer toolbox. The ANFIS model developed is a variation of triangular, trapezium, and Gaussian membership function types, with each membership function equipped with 3 and 4 variable fuzzy sets. This study uses the MAPE instrument to measure the accuracy of the developed ANFIS model. The results obtained through simulations that have been carried out, all ANFIS Models produce MAPE values below 10%. This indicates that the developed ANFIS Model is very appropriate to be used for Daily Peak Load Forecast in Banda Aceh.