The Influence of COVID-19 on Transport Mode Shift: A Case of African International Students in Wuhan-China

The COVID-19 pandemic has affected lives in many ways. The choice of transport modes by commuters is one of the areas the pandemic affected due to preventing measures such as social distancing suggested and enforced by authorities. This study explores the influence of COVID-19 on transport mode shift by focusing on international students in various educational institutes in Wuhan. The study also investigated how mode choice factors (Time to commute, transport fares, and COVID-19 preventing measures) influenced transport mode shift decisions. Stated and revealed preference surveys were carried out among the international students using an online questionnaire in the city of Wuhan. Binary Logistic Regression model, Pearson correlation, and a cross-tabulation analysis (Chi-square test) were conducted using IBM SPSS version 25. The Binary Logistic Regression model is evaluated using a classification table, Omnibus, and the Hosmer-Lemeshow Chi-square test. The results revealed that the COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in a transport mode shift among respondents. For short trips, the shift was towards cycling and commercial cars (Taxi or Didi) for long trips. About 10% of the respondents shifted from public transport modes (Bus and Metro) to commercial cars. The result of the Binary Regression model analysis revealed that females are twice more likely to shift a mode than males. Furthermore, those who are older were also twice more likely to shift a mode compared to younger respondents. The COVID-19 pandemic has influenced the decision of respondents to shift from their usual mode of transport. The sift was to the unsustainable modes of transport. Policy interventions are proposed in the direction of stringent prevention measures. The study also suggests further research direction for a detailed understanding of the behavior of commuters.