Forecasting Energy Consumption of Electric Vehicles

To reduce exhaust emissions that contribute to climate change, many countries aim to replace internal combustion engines with electric vehicles (EVs). As this change takes place, it is important to understand the potential impacts of EVs on the distribution grid. There must be a plan for grid flexibility quickly given the additional grid costs and concerns about how these costs can be reduced. Previous estimates are based on inconsistent surveys or consist of small, non-representative samples of households with electric vehicle meters. In this study, a scaled estimation of electric vehicle home charging in Turkey is presented. Fixed effects methods are used for panel data to estimate the effects of electric vehicle adoption on electric load. The average electric vehicle increases the overall household load by 3.1 kWh per day (the majority is concentrated during the night-time hours), well below the amount assumed by network regulators. With the results implying that electric vehicles travel less than expected on electric power, the issue of how to integrate electric vehicles into the energy system is a major concern as their uncontrolled charging could adversely affect the functioning of distribution grids.