Challenges in analyzing green hydrogen scenario pathways for the transition years - a meta-study for Germany

Hydrogen plays a key role in the deep decarbonization of energy systems. In this study, the demand for hydrogen and its derivatives in five major German energy system studies and a total of nine scenarios is surveyed by a meta-study approach. Special focus was set on the transition year 2030, which shows higher uncertainty in rank and size of sectoral demands than later transition years. In 2030 as well as 2045 the industry sector is generally seen as the most important sector with demand ranging from 12 to 66 TWh in 2030. For other sectors, the rank and demand differ strongly in 2030 and show no correlation to the target electrification rate of the scenarios. This applies to the overall demand as well, ranging from 14 to 123 TWh in 2030. In general, uncertainty and heterogeneity are higher for demands in 2030 than in 2045. Additionally, a structured overview of methodological differences between studies and results is presented and result reporting guidelines are provided to facilitate future scenario comparisons. A data annex to the study is provided.