THERP-CREAM Prediction Method for Human Failure Probability for Air Traffic Control

To Improve the human reliability of Air Traffic Control (ATC) for reducing the human error of air traffic controllers, a combined human failure probability prediction method based on THERP and CREAM is proposed. Based on binary tree model of THERP method, the basic context of incident development is constructed, and the trigger probability of each behavior is corrected on the basis of CREAM method, so as to get a more accurate probability prediction conclusion. Through the comparative analysis of similar incidents, the key incident impact factors can be identified to formulate targeted control measures, thus providing an effective analysis means for studying and predicting the failure probability of air traffic controllers.