Human Failure Analysis in ATC Anti-collision Based on Modified CREAM Method

In order to improve the reliability of people in collision avoidance work and minimize the impact of human failure on collision avoidance work, this paper uses the cognitive reliability and error analysis method ( CREAM ) to analyze the accident case, and combines the uncertainty theory to establish a collision avoidance human failure analysis model. This method first uses CREAM to analyze the accident case, identify the failure mode and predict the probability of failure. Then, the uncertainty theory is used to process the expert data, correct the failure probability obtained by CREAM, and evaluate the reliability of human in the accident. The example analysis of air collision accidents with air traffic controllers as the main body shows that this method can quantitatively evaluate the reliability of people in collision avoidance tasks. The procedure is rigorous, the operability is good, and the result is credible.