Time-series Analysis of Correlation between Climatic Parameters and Dengue Fever in Indonesia

Dengue fever is mainly caused by female mosquitoes from the genus Aedes. It predominantly occurs in equatorial to sub-tropical regions. The weather factors play a significant role in the mosquito life cycle, so a study on the impact of climate parameters on dengue incidence is required. This study aimed to understand the statistical association between the annual fluctuation of dengue cases with climate factors in Indonesia. Climatic data, annual rainfall, and annual mean ambient temperature of Indonesia were obtained from climateknowledgeportal.worldengueank.org from 2010 to 2020, while the data on the annual incidence of dengue fever in Indonesia were collected from the Indonesian Health Profile by the Ministry of Health of Indonesia from 2010 to 2020. The association between climatic factors with dengue cases was calculated with Spearman statistical test after the data was indicated as not normally distributed. In addition, we performed Poisson regression analysis to examine how the changes in climatic parameters affect the dengue cases. The rain precipitation was insignificantly correlated with the dengue incidence in Indonesia during the study time. In contrast, the ambient temperature statistically showed a strong association with the dengue cases. The association between climatic factors and the number of dengue cases suggests that the model would likely be prospectively applied to the dengue early warning system as a nationwide intervention to reduce the epidemic impact in Indonesia.