Electromagnetic Probability-of-Effect Assessment Tool for High-Power Susceptibility Testing

Future naval radio frequency emitters, particularly radars, will produce shipboard operational electromagnetic environments greater than what are produced today. Presently, hazards of electromagnetic radiation to ordnance and electromagnetic susceptibility certification test methods cannot meet the higher power level requirements and primarily employ deterministic test methods. The purpose of this study is to introduce and experimentally validate an electromagnetic probability-of-effect assessment tool which statistically assesses the magnitude of a system/subsystem's hardness or safety margin to upset/failure under any level of threat. The generalized extreme value and generalized log-logistic distributions are leveraged for enclosure maximum field and device threshold distributions, respectively, and the hardness margin, from structural reliability analysis, is applied for probability-of-effect prediction.