Bulk electric system well-being analysis using sequential Monte Carlo simulation

There is growing interest in combining deterministic considerations with probabilistic assessment in order to evaluate the "system well-being" of a composite generation and transmission system and to evaluate the likelihood not only of entering a complete failure state but also the likelihood of being very close to trouble. This paper presents bulk electric system well-being analysis using sequential Monte Carlo simulation. This approach provides accurate frequency and duration assessments and the index probability distributions associated with the mean values. The basic N-1 security criterion is used as the deterministic requirement for incorporating a deterministic consideration in a probabilistic assessment to monitor system well-being. The results shown in this paper indicate that the system well-being concept can provide comprehensive knowledge on what the degree of system vulnerability might be under a particular system condition. The basic concepts and their application in composite power system well-being analysis are illustrated by application to a small practical test system.