Morphology analysis approach for technology forecasting

Morphology analysis (MA), considered to be a strong stimulus for the invention of new alternatives, is subject to various limitations as it is nonquantitative, vague and static and as the outcome of MA does not provide the priority of technology opportunities. Therefore, we propose a new MA approach that enhances its performance by employing conjoint analysis (CA) and citation analysis on patent information. To this end, keywords that are extracted from patent documents by text mining and the morphology of patents are identified by these keywords. Alternatives of emerging technology are presented by combining the levels of each attribute. Moreover, the configurations of new technology are suggested in order of priority by CA and analyzed in the technological and strategic aspects such as technology share, which is analogous to market share. The proposed process is illustrated by applying an empirical data set of TFT-LCD related patents.