Deterministic Hydropower Simulation Model for Ethiopia

This paper presents a long-term deterministic linear simulation model for the Ethiopian hydropower system, intending to utilize the water stored in the rainy season throughout the year with minimum load shedding. Two cases are simulated and compared to historical data. The base case represents current load levels, and the second case represents a load level increase. The results show that the Ethiopian hydropower system has a great deal of flexibility to be operated in a more efficient way to minimize load shedding. The results also show that the system can support a 50% load increase with minimum load shedding, mostly when the load demand exceeds the total generating capacity. The contribution of this paper is to apply a standard hydropower model for Ethiopia to estimate the potential of the Ethiopian hydropower system to avoid or minimize load shedding with improved generation and operation planning.