Synthesis of the Structure of Multilevel Hierarchical Systems of Increased Survivability Based on a Subjective Probability Model

The paper is devoted to the synthesis of complex, multilevel hierarchical systems of high survivability, in particular, telecommunication (computer) networks. The computer network is constantly exposed to the destructive effects of the environment in which it operates. Therefore, there is an urgent problem of increasing survivable telecommunication (computer) networks for counteract of such influences, and maintaining the efficiency of such systems. Destructive effects on the network are usually random, but the assessment of such random events, based on classical probability theory, encounters serious difficulties because such events are not systematic and are not massive, which are necessary to assess the frequency of events that determine their classical probabilities. The paper proposes a model for the synthesis of a survivable hierarchical telecommunication (computer) networks. This model is formulated as the problem of nonlinear Boolean programming. The model uses subjective probabilities of efficiency of connection of various devices of a network in the conditions of destructive influences. The network is formed according to the criterion of maximum survivability (subjective probability of network operation under destructive influences). The proposed approach is studied on hierarchical telecommunication (computer) networks. However, the generality of the approach to the construction of survivable hierarchical systems, gives hope for the implementation of the developed approach to the synthesis of survivable multilevel hierarchical systems in other areas, including organizational management, political and economic systems.