Integrated energy system risk assessment considering the after-flow effect of line pack

Integrated energy system (IES) risk assessment is facing the problem about modeling the multi-time scale dynamical characteristics. The model method of line pack which is the typical object in the risk assessment was researched in this paper. As the storage characteristic of line pack, it is possible to keep the gas turbine working for a short time after a leakage on the pipeline. A concise mathematical expression form of this after-flow effect was derived in this paper, which was achieved via both the assumptions from simulation and theoretical proofs. A specific flexible regulation strategy was also proposed about the after-effect appliance. With the risk factors influencing the strategy analyzed and modeled respectively, the complete assessment process and indices were provided. Finally, a case study was applied on an IES model which was based on IEEE 3-machine 9-node model, which could provide feasible suggestions on operation parameter settings. The methods and conclusions described in this paper are supposed to promote the development of IES risk assessment.