Research Framework of the Human-Cyber-Energy Coupled Urban Energy Internet Catastrophe Analysis and Its Dynamic Early Warning

In the Urban Energy Internet (UEI), any partial and weak faults may be transmitted to other subsystems through cyber and energy spaces, which may increase the risk of system catastrophe, ranging from small scale to large scale, from single system to multi-system, and from minor accidents to system crashed. Therefore, the analysis of the catastrophe in UEI is urgently needed. In this paper, a research framework of UEI catastrophe analysis and its dynamic early warning mechanism are constructed, based on the integration of human, cyber and energy in UEI, which aims at quantifying the potential catastrophic risks of the human-cyber-energy coupling system. First, the interaction mechanism among human, cyber and energy are analyzed. Secondly, the hybrid model of UEI calculation of probabilistic energy flow based on the dynamic probability method is developed. Furthermore, based on the analysis of catastrophe propagation and evolution mechanism of the human-cyber-energy space, the catastrophe analysis method for coupling system is analyzed, and indicators and assessment methods for characterizing the local and overall disaster-resistant status of UEI. On this foundation, the dynamic early warning mechanism of catastrophe based on artificial immune system is constructed. Finally, the comprehensive simulation architecture of catastrophe analysis and early warning mechanism for UEI are developed to verify the validity of the theoretical methods. The expected achievements of this framework proposed in this paper can provide theoretical support for the planning and operation of UEI.