Simulation-Based Quantitative Risk Assessment of Fire in Urban Electrical Cable Tunnels

Fire safety is one of the most important parts in the safety management of urban electrical cable tunnels. Therefore, a new approach for quantitative risk assessment of fire in cable tunnels is proposed in this study. The approach integrates both the deterministic and the probabilistic analysis by incorporating a Monte Carlo based fire simulation simulated under the CFD code–fire dynamics simulator (FDS)–into an event tree model, which enables the fire development and the uncertainty existed in the fire progression process to be handled in the assessment. In order to validate the availability of this approach, a case study is also carried out in this paper. Through the analysis of fire risk using this approach, the fire risk can be quantified more accurately, and further analysis of the performance of different fire safety measures is also able to be conducted.