Short-Term Price Forecasting With Renewable Integration in Smart Grids Using ARIMA-ANN-ANFIS Hybrid Model

The load and price forecasting are two main problems in the electricity markets, but the consumers should be able to react to the electricity prices and handle their electricity utilization. The wind power penetration in smart grids has become highly complex in real time matching of the electricity consumption and production in the power systems due to its high variability. Thus, it is of great importance to achieve short-term prediction of electricity price accurately. In this paper, taking high wind power penetration and Nord Pool power market into concern, authors proposed a hybrid ARIMA-ANN-ANFIS model to forecast daily price for each month from January to April 2014. The performance of the proposed model has been evaluated in terms of MAE, MAPE, RMSE and variance. The simulation results of the proposed model have shown superiority for short term price forecasting as compared to ARIMA, ANN and hybrid ARIMA-ANN models separately.